Going into the season, the Anaheim Ducks were among the favorites to take home the Stanley Cup. They were certainly favored to win the Pacific Division for the fourth season in a row and generally expected to make a deep playoff run.
Yet, here we sit nearly one-third of the way through the 2015-16 season, and the Ducks look like anything but a contender. They currently sit fifth in the weak Pacific Division, with a 9-12-5 record (23 points).
So, what happened? Were we too high on them before the season? Have players underperformed? Are they just unlucky?
The answers lies somewhere in between all those factors, but leans heavily toward the last one.
First it’s important to look back at the beginning of the season and see if our expectations were too high for this team. On one hand, the Ducks have never been a particularly-strong possession team in their recent run of success. On the other hand, we have three years of evidence they can overcome those mediocre possession numbers by virtue of their top end skill players. No one should be questioning whether a team that pushed Chicago to seven games in the Western Conference Finals last season is for real or not.
However, there were some strange quirks to last year’s team. The 2014-15 Ducks went 33-1-7 in one-goal games. Now, with the amount of NHL games decided by one goal, good teams will almost unavoidably have good records in these games. But 33-1-7 is neither repeatable nor sustainable.
Another place to look when discussing possible regression is a team’s PDO. This stat is calculated by adding a team’s 5-on-5 save percentage and 5-on-5 shooting percentage. As you could probably guess, the average is 100. Some teams, either with elite skill or goaltending, can put up consistently-higher PDO’s. However, a team without one of those two things or with a PDO that’s just too high to sustain is sure to regress and vice-versa.
But this really doesn’t apply to last year’s Ducks as much as this year’s. The 2014-15 squad had a very sustainable 100.4 PDO while this year’s team is currently at 97.6. That’s sure to rise.
So, there’s good news and bad news for Ducks fans. On the positive side, the team has improved many facets of the game this year. The penalty kill is at league-best 87.5 percent so far this year. The power play is up from 28th last year to 17th this season. The possession numbers have improved in all situations (they’re the fifth-best team at even strength when the game is tied). The only thing that’s gotten worse is the team’s save percentage, but with John Gibson back in net, that has begun to improve.
The biggest issue thus far has been the team’s shooting percentage, which not surprisingly is why the Ducks are near the bottom of the league in goals scored. There’s really no explanation for that beyond luck. Corey Perry is leading the team with nine goals, but is far behind his usual pace. Ryan Getzlaf has one goal on 51 shots. Ryan Kesler has 11 points in 26 games. These guys didn’t forget how to score in one offseason. These numbers will all improve.
The bad news is the losses they’ve accumulated count. They’re already behind and while there are no great teams in the Pacific Division, there are four ahead of them.
Since its 1-7-2 start, Anaheim has been 8-4-3, playing at a 103-point pace. Yet, they’ve barely made up any ground. They’re four points behind the Coyotes, five behind the Sharks and eight behind the Kings, all of whom have two games in hand. The last wild card spot is currently being held by Minnesota, who has five points and three games in hand on the Ducks.
To make the playoffs, the Ducks are probably going to have to get to third or higher in the Pacific. To do that, they’ll need luck to start to swing their way. They’ll need to stay healthy, ride Gibson and hope their stars start finding the back of the net.
It seems all but certain the percentages will eventually tip in their favor. But will that happen soon enough for them to make a playoff push? That’s very much up in the air.
