The Tampa Bay Lightning announced on Sunday that they avoided arbitration with forward Alex Killorn and signed him to an eight-year deal, worth $31.5 million.
Get ready! Killer’s back for seven more years as a Bolt ⚡️
📝: https://t.co/9UoTZZvkh6 pic.twitter.com/fBOF890h2J
— Tampa Bay Lightning (@TBLightning) July 17, 2016
The signing was the latest transaction general manager Steve Yzerman made to keep his talented core intact. Locking up star defenseman Victor Hedman to an eight-year, $63 million deal was a great value move. Re-signing Steven Stamkos, the biggest free agent on the market, to a below value eight-year, $68 million was also a shrewd, impressive deal. Yzerman managed to lock up his two best players on shockingly reasonable deals. So, to see the GM hand Killorn a seven-year deal after being both smart and savvy comes as a surprise.
Killorn is an effective depth player. The 26-year-old has been consistently contributing, hitting around 40 points in three straight seasons. In 2015-16, Killorn scored 14 times and added 40 points. In the playoffs, Killorn was quite effective, scoring 14 goals and 31 points over his last 43 post season games. There’s no debate over whether he’s got NHL talent. The issue with the contract is Killorn getting paid and given term like he’s a core piece when he’s not one.
Looking at Killorn’s stats, his linemates at even strength were among the best forwards in the organization – Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Tyler Johnson all rank 1-3 respectively in even strength minutes with Killorn. He saw time on the power play throughout the season and averaged almost 17 minutes of ice-time per game. Killorn was put in a position to put up points and did so in a modest, solid rate. That doesn’t mean he deserves a long-term deal.
A seven-year contract is lengthy for a player of his caliber, and rarely do deals like it work out. Per General Fanager, the deal compares with ones given to Justin Abelkader (seven-year, $4.25 million AAV), Cody Hodgson (six-year, $4.25 million AAV) and Andrew Shaw (six-year, $3.9 million) – all contracts which are prime examples why you shouldn’t give term to depth players. Depth players are largely replaceable and even the good ones aren’t going to change a team’s outlook long term. So why commit so much money to Killorn? Does his name fit in with the players who received seven-year contracts or more this offseason, such as Milan Lucic, Nathan MacKinnon, Keith Yandle or Mark Scheifele? No, it doesn’t. Those players received significantly more dollars, but there’s no need to commit to Killorn on a deal which values him like he’s more than what he is.
A bigger role might be in the fold for Killorn in 2016-17, so perhaps Yzerman is paying him for the player he will become, not the player he is now. But, at 26-years-old, is there room for significant improvement? Killorn seems to be a bonafide 40-point scorer. Can he make the jump into the 50-60’s?
Yzerman is among the best in the business, but a $4.45 million cap hit until 2023 could mess with his overall cap management. Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin are all restricted free agents after the season and will command sizable deals. With money committed to Killorn, there’s a realistic possibility one of those names gets squeezed out – unless, he somehow finds a trade partner for Valtteri Filppula or Ryan Callahan. Killorn’s deal might haunt Yzerman in as quickly as two or three seasons.
Yzerman has earned trust because he’s often making the right moves. His offseason was pure fire until the Killorn deal was announced. It appears keeping Killorn as a part of the core going forward was a priority. But the question remains, is he a building block or a replaceable depth piece? I’d lean towards the latter.
