After Steven Stamkos decided against taking his talents to the open market, it put a real damper on the offseason. Most hockey fans were hoping that Stamkos would try and leverage other teams to have them all fight for his services. This next offseason we may see a similar arms race for a less impactful player.
Reportedly Brad Marchand has set his asking price for his next contract and it is an awful lot of money.
Sources close to situation say #NHLBruins Brad Marchand seeking extension of 7-years, $49M.
— Shawn Hutcheon (@ShawnHutcheon) July 24, 2016
Just taking a look at some contracts that might be comparable for Marchand and they don’t lend themselves very well to him. He is a great talent, but the players that have signed around his age have all fallen off almost immediately after signing a new deal.
One of the best comparisons we have for Marchand is Bobby Ryan, who signed a seven-year, $50 million deal. Ryan has outscored Marchand overall and even has a 70-point season under his belt, yet he is still a pariah in Ottawa due to the money he commands. Scoring 50+ points a season is a good mark, but it just leaves something to be desired when trying to evaluate contracts. Getting above 50+ points puts you into the upper echelon as a first-line player, but just how valuable of a first-line player is Marchand?
Here’s a comparison of Marchand in 2015-16 vs Marchand in 2014-15.
Marchand in 2014-15 scored 42 points in 77 games while in 2015-16 he scored 61 points in 77 games. Taking a look at his rate stats, they look nearly identical. Marchand is a consistent player that always gets the job done. Maybe there is something to be said about a player like that on your team. Even if the team is down in the dumps, he can make sure that the team doesn’t completely float adrift.
He would be 29 the time that his next deal starts and would go all the way until he is 36. How often have wingers who play a physical game lasted in this league? They generally fade after hitting 30. If anything, I would sign Marchand to a shorter term deal with the money he wants. He obviously would want the security of a longer deal, but you would be able to protect yourself in case he breaks down.
The salary cap is going to continue to rise, meaning players are going to be getting paid. It may seem like a lot of money now, unfortunately or fortunately depending on who you talk to, and these guys are going to be making a lot of money. Term may end up being the next contract battleground as players want insurance for the next, possible lockout. Marchand will make an interesting case study, if nothing else.
