With the firing of Head Coach Randy Carlyle, the Toronto Maple Leafs have set the hockey media abuzz with retrospectives in regards to why the move was made. Some have been quick to blame Phil Kessel. There are also no shortages of “I told you so” type analytics articles popping up by the minute.
Instead of looking back let’s look forward at the players that coaches Steve Spott and Peter Horachek have to work with.
Scoring chances
A recent development at perhaps the best NHL analytics site War-On-Ice is the addition of scoring chances as a data point. This breaks down shots based on the home plate scoring area and deems them high-percentage or scoring chances.
Pictured above is an approximation of the home plate scoring chances area. This is the area of the ice that provides the highest percentage scoring chances.
Presumably a player that consistently has more scoring chances while they are on the ice as opposed to off the ice is driving quality possession rather than simply driving possession.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs the data is very telling of which players should actually be getting more ice time in offense roles. It also shows which offensive players need a change of line mates to handle the defensive responsibilities better.
The most important column on the above table is the SCF%Rel column. This shows whether the player is generating a higher or lower percentage of scoring chances for while they are on the ice when compared to their teammates.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs Nazem Kadri is their best player by this measure and I am sure I will not get much of an argument from many who are familiar with the analytics surrounding Kadri.
Based on this Bozak, Kessel and James Van Riemsdyk are not performing better than their teammates. Despite the fact they are all in the top five on the team in terms of scoring chances for per 60 minutes (SCF60), however they are also the three worst on the team in terms of scoring chances against per 60 minutes (SCA60).
This tells me that they are in desperate need of different line mates. The trio of JVR, Bozak and Kessel must be broken up long term in order to better the team.
What new lines look like for the Leafs when taking into account this scoring chance data?
A combination of JVR, Kadri and Winnik would be effective. A second unit that includes Komarov, Santorelli and Kessel would help to shelter Kessel and give him line mates with some offensive skills still.
A third unit that includes Panik, Bozak and Lupul would provide offense but also be better defensively that a JVR, Kessel and Bozak combination. Lastly the leftovers of Clarkson and Holland would make up two thirds of the fourth line.
On defense Rielly, Gardiner and Franson are the best all around and should make up three quarters of the top four. Naturally Phaneuf is the most likely candidate to join them.
Playing Gardiner with Phaneuf and Rielly with Franson could be effective, however it would be better to mix Polak and Robidas into those pairings. So something more like Phaneuf/Robidas, Polak/Rielly and Franson/Gardiner would make sense to me.
Final thoughts
The new line combinations would be a big change for the trio of Kessel, JVR and Bozak. However by moving them around the team as a whole would likely perform better defensively.
Offense is definitely not the issue with this team so sacrificing a little of that for a better team defense can help the Leafs become a much more consistent team.
They can also then step off the treadmill of riding the rolling save and shooting percentages to lengthy hot and cold streaks.
