On Saturday, the TSN Hockey Analytics show interviewed former Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Marlies Head Coach Dallas Eakins. The focus was supposed to be on the Oilers’ acceptance of advanced stats like Corsi and how they incorporated that information into their approach. Perhaps predictably, the words that drew the most attention were about the hiring of famed blogger Tyler Dellow (@mc79hockey). Eakins revealed,
Bringing in Tyler was an interesting process on a number of fronts. We announced the hire and immediately we had an email from a journalist to our PR department asking the question, “Is anyone from the organization going to talk about the hiring of this prick.”
That quote caught the attention of Hockey Twitter (TM). It affirmed, as Eakins himself acknowledged on the program, the chasm between the mainstream media and the bloggers and analytics gurus online. As Eakins decried, “There’s such a divide. You’re either for them or against them.” But that storyline was hardly the most important of the interview. Instead, it was Eakins’ candor about his use of analytics we should be focusing on.
For example, when asked for a specific situation in which he used analytics, he cited the power play. Eakins said he (presumably with Dellow’s assistance) looked at teams that were successful on the power play over long periods of time. He discovered that San Jose generates almost 120 shot attempts per 60 minutes of power play time and that only six other teams have managed over 100 since 2008. And then he observed San Jose’s power play strategy: how they enter the offensive zone, the handedness of their players, and so on. Of course, as with everything in the ever-changing landscape of analytics, we were only one blog post away from reconsidering power play Corsi. On Monday, Arik Parnass at Hockey Prospectus suggested that power play shot rates aren’t as predictive as we once thought.
Nevertheless, Eakins’ willingness to adopt analytics is a good sign for his future. He said he found a formula for improvement, noted that the results were paying off (he pointed out that the Oilers’ Corsi numbers jumped dramatically under his leadership), and implicitly called his firing shortsighted. “The market wanted wins now,” he lamented. But what NHL teams seemingly find difficult to accept is that an overhaul requires a longterm approach. The Oilers weren’t going to make the playoffs this year no matter who coached them. Eakins did everything right…and still got fired.
Eakins came off as a bright, shrewd coach, willing to be open-minded about new ideas and new metrics that will revolutionize how we think about the game. He’s too sharp not to find another NHL head coaching job soon. Teams are lining up at Mike Babcock’s door. But Dallas Eakins deserves a phone call too.
