The former child prodigy and number one overall pick of the New York Islanders in the 2009 NHL Entry draft, John Tavares, has been steadily improving and is now considered amongst the best players in the game. His drive and determination to be the best has no doubt kept him on the right path during the first portion of his NHL career.
John Tavares has enduring some very lean times on the island seeing only six games of NHL playoff action coming in the lockout shortened 2012-13 season. Since the 2009-10 season, his rookie year, the New York Islanders have won only 167 games out of 475 or 35 percent. In that same period of time he also saw crowds in the Islanders arena average greater than 14,000 per game in only one season, the lockout shortened 2012-13 NHL season.
Despite the lack of success John Tavares, a native of Oakville Ontario, signed a new contract to stay with the New York Islanders until the summer of 2018. His cap hit of $5.5 million is a steal for what he brings to the Islanders.
With the resurgence of the Islanders through the first 17 games of the season to the tune of 11 wins it appears that John Tavares’ patience with general manager Garth Snow has finally paid off. Their record has them sitting comfortably in fourth place in the Eastern Conference trailing the Metropolitan division leading Pittsburgh Penguins by only three points.
What do the numbers say?
One area where the advanced statistics can be of great help when attempting to predict the future is in determining whether a team can sustain their current level of success or failure. Some key advanced statistics that I value in this process are:
- Shot attempts for (Corsi for): Indicates the amount of time the team spends in the offensive zone. If they are consistently spending more time in the defensive zone it is unlikely that they can sustain success over the long term without an elite goaltender.
- Puck luck (PDO- which is made up of team shooting and save percentages): Indicates if a team is getting above/below average goaltending and/or shooting percentages. If either is over the league average it is almost inevitable that they will fall below their current levels. This means the team will stop scoring as much and also let in more goals.
- Percentage of face-offs in the offensive zone: This is another indicator of how success a team is in spending more time in the offensive zone. A team with a higher percentage of face-offs in the offensive zone is generally giving their defense and goaltenders “easier” minutes and the opposition has to absorb those tougher minutes.
- Percentage of face-offs in the defensive zone: A team could have more shifts starting in the defensive zone and still have an above average shot attempts for percentage. However they would need elite puck moving defenders and a solid goaltender in order to be success in this fashion over the long term.
When looking at these numbers I have compared the prior three NHL seasons (2011-14) to the current season (2014-15) in an effort to show where the New York Islanders have improved.
As you can see from this chart the bulk of the Islanders improvement has come from improve offensive zone starts and more offensive zone time. Granted the puck luck rating has increased, however the average is generally around 100. With the Islanders coming in just below this they have not been overly lucky or unlucky this season.
Combine the fact that their luck seems pretty even and that their improvement has been driving largely by increases in offensive starts and zone time, and this appears to be a team that is set to maintain their current level of play through to the end of the season. This would be barring any significant injuries of course.
What about the trade deadline this year and next season?
Currently the New York Islanders have a great deal of flexibility with 16 players signed and over $24 million in salary cap room to work with for the 2015-16 NHL season. Some key internal free agents that will need to be resigned are Brock Nelson, Lubomir Visnosky, Johnny Boychuk and Nick Leddy.
As for this year’s trade deadline, the Islanders have put themselves in the position to be buyers. They currently have over $5.4 million in cap space and by the deadline that will increase to over $25 million. Essentially they could acquire players with up to a combined $25 million cap hit to help them in the playoffs.
One thing is for sure, with a few shrewd moves by general manager Garth Snow the New York Islanders could be a true Stanley Cup contender within the next couple seasons. Look out Brooklyn, good times will be rolling!
