The Calgary Flames have been a pleasant surprise thus far this season. In what was supposed to be a rebuilding year the Flames are sitting 9th overall in the NHL with 34 points, good for a tie for third place in the Western Conference with the St. Louis Blues and Nashville Predators.
Are the Calgary Flames really going to make the playoffs this season and keep up their current pace? Or are they going to become the Toronto Maple Leafs version 2.0?
Based on the numbers it appears the Flames are due for a fall back to reality. In our most recent NHL Analytics Power Rankings the Calgary Flames ranked 26th overall.
There are two key numbers that lead me to believe that the Calgary Flames will not keep up their current level of wins.
You take the puck!
First, a much talked about number is their puck possession or lack thereof. Currently at five on five they are controlling only 43% of the shot attempts which ranks them above only the lowly Buffalo Sabres.
If their goaltending falters even the slightest from it’s current levels the Flames will start to drop back in the standings. For now they are able to outscore their opponents while they score on nearly 10% of their shots. This ranks them first overall in the league and it is clear that the Calgary Flames do not have elite snipers on their team to maintain this level.
As well their goaltending ranks 12th in the NHL with a combined 0.926 save percentage at five on five play. With Jonas Hiller between the pipes it is conceivable that he may be able to keep his current level of play up.
Get out of my zone!
However the fact that they are being consistently out shot combined with the second concerning number of starting over 36% of their face-offs in the defensive zone is the death Nell for the Flames. Once again this ranks them only above the Buffalo Sabres and we all know how they have fared this season.
Eventually being out shot and overworking your goaltenders by spending the majority of your time in their zone will catch up to them. Perhaps they will continue this pace for the entire season much like the Colorado Avalanche did last season.
Taking the foot off the gas pedal…
Another interesting number to look at is their puck possession rates when they are leading in games. They fall just above Buffalo and Ottawa for third last in the league controlling just under 38% of the shot attempts.
This shows that they truly rely on their goaltending a great deal to help them close out victories on a game by game basis.
However, whether it be this year or next year the Calgary Flames management must not let themselves get caught up in thinking that the rebuilding phase is completed. This would be a grave error in judgement.
