The NHL’s regular season ended on Saturday, and while all eyes will now turn to the playoffs, it’s worth remembering some of the biggest surprises—both positive and negative—of the 82-game marathon. These are developments that would have sounded so absurd if you’d predicted them in October. Yet here we are, desperately trying to pick our jaws up off the floor.
THE TOP-5 POSITIVE SURPRISES
5. The New York Islanders. When the Islanders acquired Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuck, we knew they would be good. With the franchise moving to Brooklyn next season, with John Taveres every bit as good (though with less fanfare) than Crosby, with Travis Hamonic developing into an excellent defenseman, we knew they would be good. But no one had them being one of—if not the—best possession team in the league until next year or the year after. The Ders’ score-adjusted Fenwick of 54.5% led the league. Until the Rangers’ scorching stretch run, the Islanders were in contention for a division title, despite a PDO that ranked 26th in the league. The Isles limped into the playoffs, and this might not be their year (It might be—who knows?). But the Barclays Center will be getting a team in position to contend for the Stanley Cup for the foreseeable future. Considering where the franchise was when this man was in charge, that’s a surprise in itself.
4. Just how bad the Buffalo Sabres were. It’s a positive, at least, for fans of that team. For the integrity of the NHL, perhaps not so much. The Sabres were historically bad—perhaps the worst team in NHL history. Buffalo’s score-adjusted Corsi percentage of 37.5%, without context, might not sound so disastrous. But just for fun, I looked at five NHL franchises since the 2002-03 season on war-on-ice (I chose the first five alphabetically, minus Buffalo). Here are the worst season long Corsi percentages for each:
BOS 45.9%
CAR 47.7%
CBJ 43.3%
CGY 44.4% (2014-15)
CHI 48.3%
None of those numbers comes without SHOUTING distance of this year’s Buffalo team. Frankly, it’s amazing the Sabres picked up as many points as they did. Even trying to tank, it’s hard to be this bad.
3. Just how good Carey Price was. Montreal was badly outshot and badly outpossessed this season. With a mere mortal between the pipes, they would not have made the playoffs. But Price was godly in net for the Habs, posting a .933 save percentage to lead the league by a wide margin. Price’s adjusted save percentage of .946% was actually only second in the league, behind Steve Mason (talk about surprises!), but Price dragged a team with a score-adjusted Fenwick of 48.9 to a division title, and if he wasn’t already, planted himself firmly as the league’s best goalie.
2. Andrew Freakin’ Hammond. The “Goalie Gets Hot and Leads Team to Unprecedented Success” storyline isn’t necessarily shocking. We’ve seen that one before several times. Goalies run hot and cold more than any other athletes, and have a bigger influence on games than any position in another other sport. In small sample sizes, crazy things happen. But what makes Hammond’s stretch run of a .941 even-strength save percentage in Ottawa so absurd is that Hammond was one of the worst goalies in the AHL before his call up. If he had been even competent in the AHL, this wouldn’t have caught us so off guard. He was terrible in the minor leagues, and then tore up the Big Show.
1. The Calgary Flames. Like the Maple Leafs two seasons ago and the Avalanche of last season, the Flames were a bad team that rode a wave of unsustainable shooting percentage to the playoffs. The Flames’ score-adjusted Fenwick percentage of 45.7% ranked 27th in the league. And they didn’t even need all 82 games to clinch a playoff berth.
THE TOP-5 NEGATIVE SURPRISES
5. I just learned this today. You have got to be kidding.
https://twitter.com/DaveLozo/status/587309876491063296
4. The salary cap could decrease next season. There were rumors all year that the Canadian dollar’s decrease in value could mean a decrease in the NHL’s salary cap. But it never felt like we believed it would actually happen…until recently when Don Fehr told NHL player agents the cap could fall to around $68 million. By no means is it a guarantee, and the union could enact its five percent escalator option to force the cap to go up, but if the cap actually goes down for the first time in its existence, NHL general managers will be scrambling.
3. Sidney Crosby playing a full season and only scoring 28 goals. To be clear, Crosby was dynamic this season, and just as good as ever and he’s not even necessarily a pure goal scorer—more of a “playmaker.” When he was on the ice at even strength, the Penguins controlled 56.2% of the shot attempts. Seeing him not eclipse the 30 goal mark is stunning. Throughout his career, when he’s played a full season, his goal totals have been: 39, 36, 33, 51, 36, and then 28 this year. In 2010-11, he played in only 41 games and scored 32 times. Over his career, Crosby has scored on 14.4% of his shots on goal. This year, his shooting percentage was 11.8%.
2. The Boston Bruins. Last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners find themselves hitting the driving range earlier than expected after their elimination from playoff contention on the last day of the season. Unlike the #1 on this list, you can’t really blame bad luck. The Bruins were decidedly mediocre, according to the advanced stats. Their score-adjusted Fenwick of 51.2% sat 16th in the league. The Bruins rode Tuuka Rask, playing him in a whopping 70 games. Rask was good, posting a .922 save percentage, good for 8th in the league, but it was a far cry from his past three seasons of .929%, .930, and .929%. With the Bruins’ possession numbers, they needed Rask to be exceptional. He was merely good, and the Bruins are left out of the playoff dance. GM Peter Chiarelli has some big decisions to make about the direction of his club.
1. The Los Angeles Kings. Unbelievable: the defending Stanley Cup champions were an elite possession team, got an above average season from Jonathan Quick (.918 save percentage), and missed the playoffs. And then we heard this story, about the Kings reportedly locking Darryl Sutter out of the dressing room. Now, the players’ relationship with their coach is not what kept LA out of the playoffs. It was their 2-8 record in the coin flip contest called the shootout, and their 10-9 record in one-goal games decided in regulation (which, like the shootout, have demonstrated to be mostly influenced by random luck).
The Kings should be back in the playoffs next year as they have most of their core locked up. Kings fans need to hope GM Dean Lombardi doesn’t have a crisis of confidence like Doug Wilson had in San Jose last summer. Wilson overreacted to bad luck and small sample sizes and decided to scrap all logic and number crunching in favor of “leadership.” If you were wondering, that’s why the San Jose Sharks aren’t on this list. Turn away from sound, calculable reason in favor of stuff that can’t be measured and John Scott, and it’s not a surprise when you miss the playoffs.
