Nathan MacKinnon’s rookie season went about as well as possible. The 2013 first overall pick won the Calder Trophy, put up 63 points and led the Colorado Avalanche from 29th overall the year before his arrival to a 112-point season and the Central Division title.
The Avs fell in seven games in the opening round but the hockey world was abuzz about MacKinnon. Since the lockout, only Sidney Crosby, Pat Kane and Jeff Skinner had put up as many points as MacKinnon during their age-18 season. He’s was the face of the NHL’s “up-and-comers”, a team of young stars that would surely dominate the Western Conference for years to come.
Then he hit a bit of a sophomore slump, especially early in the 2014-15 season. Then Vines of Connor McDavid goals started hitting Twitter a few times per week. And Jack Eichel started dominating at Boston University. And the wins stopped coming for Colorado. Quickly, MacKinnon became an afterthought.
The success of the 2013-14 Avs was always going to be unsustainable to some degree. Semyon Varlamov’s save percentage wasn’t going to be .927 every year. The blue line needed some work. Plus, Colorado was a bottom-five team by any commonly-used puck possession metric.
As a young team, there was certainly improvement to be expected. But a series of moves that could be best described as puzzling has left Colorado much worse off than it was two years ago. The Avs finished last in a difficult Central Division last season and appear set to do so again this year.
Meanwhile, Jack Eichel and Connor McDavid (along with Dylan Larkin, Max Domi, Anthony Duclair and a wildly-talented rookie class) have been as good as advertised, unfortunate McDavid injury aside.
These factors have combined to overshadow MacKinnon’s ascendance as a star. After a difficult 2014-15 campaign where suffered through injuries and an abnormally-low shooting percentage, MacKinnon has shined this season.
He’s among the league’s leaders in goals and points. He scored two goals in 13 seconds Saturday night. His speed, hands and incredible shot make him nearly impossible to stop. He’s helped the inconsistent Mikhail Grigorenko produce offensively.
He’s done all this without a ridiculous or wildly-unsustainable shooting percentage (13.1 percent). There’s no regression coming. Plus, he’s only 20 years old. He’s going to keep this up for years.
The Avs future is a bit more difficult to predict. Joe Sakic doesn’t seem to be capable of 21st century roster building. He’s put too much faith in older guys, hasn’t properly valued the puck-possession skills of some now departed players and has done very little to address the issues on defense. Most importantly, he’s somehow failed to make a team boasting MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog, Matt Duchene and the still-awesome Jarome Iginla into a contender.
It’s difficult to see this team competing in the Central Division soon unless a major change in front office leadership or philosophy takes place. That’s bad for MacKinnon and it’s bad for hockey. Someone with his talent shouldn’t be sitting at home spring after spring. Unless something drastic changes, that will be the case.
For now, we’ll enjoy MacKinnon in the regular season. He may not be McDavid or Eichel, but he’s a superstar in his own right.
