NHL Analytics Power Rankings: 11/18

Welcome to the first NHL Analytics Power Rankings. In what will become a regular feature here at Puck Drunk Love, I will publish a power ranking of the NHL teams based on advanced statistics.

What goes into this ranking? Shot attempts for percentage, offensive/defensive zone starts, goals for percentage and puck luck are the elements of this analytic power ranking.

2013-14 NHL season end Power Rankings:

2013-14 Analytics Power Rankings

As can be seen there are three teams (New Jersey, Arizona and Ottawa) that did not make the playoffs but still ranked in the top 16 of the analytic power rankings. The three teams they would have replaced were Columbus, Pittsburgh and Montreal.

The three teams that finished the highest in the standings compared to their analytics ranking were Colorado (12 spots), Pittsburgh (14 spots) and Montreal (17 spots). The three teams that finished the lowest when compared to their analytics ranking were Los Angeles (7 spots), Detroit (7 spots) and New Jersey (9 spots).

The New Jersey Devils are the most interesting team to view in this light. They finished nine spots lower in the standings than their analytics would indicate. Much of their can be attributed to one of the league worst rankings in luck at -1.5. Perhaps by starting Corey Schneider over Martin Brodeur more often last season the Devils would have made the playoffs.

November 18, 2014 Power Rankings:

Nov 18th power rank

Teams currently outside the playoffs in points but in the top 16 of the rankings: New Jersey, Washington, New York Rangers and Dallas.

Teams currently in the playoffs based on points but outside of the top 16 in the rankings: Ottawa, San Jose, Vancouver, Calgary, Toronto and Winnipeg.

Three teams with the most luck:  Pittsburgh, Nashville and Calgary are all three points above the league average in terms of puck luck. All three teams are in the top six of the league and it appears they will all be due for some negative regression prior to the end of the season.

However if both Pittsburgh and Nashville were receiving only the league average in puck luck they would still rank first and fourth respectively in the analytics power ranking since their shot attempts, zone starts and goals for are in such good standing.

The Calgary Flames would not follow the same trend as the Penguins and Predators. If they dropped to the league average in puck luck they would also fall from 23rd to 26th in the analytics rankings. Suffice to say that while Flames fans can enjoy their success right now, do not expect it to last the entire season.

Three teams with the least luck: Carolina (-3.3), Edmonton (-3.0) and Columbus (-2.7). If we give all three teams league average puck luck the results would only see Carolina move into the top 16 of the league. Edmonton would move to 24th and Columbus would remain at 29th in the analytic rankings.

This indicates that despite their poor luck there are other issues which must be address on both the Oilers and Blue Jackets in order for them to enter the playoff picture this season.

About Mike Burse

Mike will make the numbers make sense in the NHL for Puck Drunk Love.

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